Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes on the Humber estuary is a constituency that brings together a town that once claimed to be the biggest fishing port globally during the industrial revolution and the more Conservative-leaning seaside resort and rural villages around Cleethorpes. This new constituency was significant in the 2024 general election, sitting at the heart of the “red wall” in Brexit-backing Lincolnshire. A crucial seat in the Labour-Conservative battleground, this is where Sir Keir Starmer had to reclaim on his path to power. And he succeeded.
It was a symbolic win for Labour as the party took back Great Grimsby, which had been Labour since the Second World War but switched to Boris Johnson’s Conservatives in 2019 and also secured the more rural and affluent Cleethorpes. However, the larger story on the night was that the Labour vote was broad but not deep. Sir Keir’s substantial working majority of 165 seats was won with the lowest vote share of any government since the Second World War. This landslide victory was built on shaky ground, reflecting a rejection of the Conservatives and the rise of other parties rather than a full embrace of Labour.
Millions of votes went to Reform and the Liberal Democrats as the Conservatives faced their worst-ever election defeat. Nigel Farage’s Reform party garnered around 14% of all votes cast, returning a record five MPs to parliament and coming second in over 100 others, 89 of which were Labour seats, including Great Grimsby.
As seen in other Western democracies, there is a realignment towards the populist, nationalist right, with leaders like Nigel Farage emboldened by Trump’s victory in the US. With the threat from the far right looming in Germany and France in upcoming national elections, Sir Keir might find himself as the last major center-left leader in Europe.
Sir Keir understands that failing to deliver on promises made in the July general election could lead to the wrath of voters. The budget served as a downpayment on those pledges, showcasing the true contours of this Labour government. The budget was historic and substantial in its tax and spending plans for Britain, heavily investing in public services, especially the NHS, in the first two years of the parliament.
After the budget, we returned to Grimsby to gauge the public’s response. Three voters shared their perspectives, highlighting themes of trust and tax. Sharon, a lifelong Labour supporter, expressed concerns about indirect taxation on working individuals due to the national insurance tax hikes. She mentioned feeling chaotic about the Labour government’s actions. Amy, a former Conservative party chair, emphasized the issue of trust and questioned the burden on businesses to drive growth. Caiman, a voter who felt Sir Keir lacked a human touch, still viewed the Prime Minister as a political robot.
The general sentiment was mixed, with voters giving Sir Keir varying ratings for his performance in the first four months. The local MP, Melanie Onn, acknowledged the challenges and surprises of the Labour budget, noting the need for bold investments to revitalize the economy and public services. Despite reclaiming her seat, Ms. Onn recognized the growing appeal of Reform party among voters dissatisfied with traditional political options in red wall areas.
The budget sets the tone for the Labour government’s focus on reducing waiting lists and investing in healthcare. As the government works to deliver change and address the concerns of the people, the success of Sir Keir’s bold budget remains to be seen in securing the future against the populist threat.
